# The library: sites, papers, books, tools Everything this book cites, plus what belongs on your shelf if you want to keep going on your own: every reference annotated in a sentence or two (**why** to read it, and where to get it), sorted by kind, each with the chapter of this book that leans on it. Links are given by name, because URLs change and names do not. The last section lays out reading paths, since a library with no reading order is just a pile. ## The reference series and blogs **Early Retirement Now, the "Safe Withdrawal Rate Series" (Karsten Jeske)**: the quantitative reference on the subject. More than 60 parts, reproducible simulations, relentless honesty. The natural companion to this book (he pushes the simulations further; this book covers the plan around them and the tooling). Start with Part 1 and Part 26; the full reader's guide is [[the-ern-series]]. **Kitces.com (Michael Kitces)**: the blog of the American advisory profession. The source of risk-based guardrails, the bond tent and ratcheting. Technical, careful, prolific. Search it by subject rather than following the feed. [[morningstar-guardrails]], [[glidepaths]] **Bogleheads (wiki and forum)**: the index investing community. The wiki is a well-kept encyclopedia (VPW, ABW, fund placement), and the forum hosts the TPAW threads and the long-running diaries. [[vpw]], [[amortization-based-withdrawal]], [[building-it-with-us-etfs]] **Portfolio Charts (Tyler)**: the model portfolios (Permanent, Golden Butterfly and the rest) tested country by country, with safe withdrawal rates and drawdowns. The visual tool for the portfolio part. [[all-weather-portfolios]] **Mr. Money Mustache**: the cultural founder of the movement. Read him for the arithmetic of the savings rate and for the energy, not for the science of withdrawal, which has moved on since. [[what-is-fire]] **[r/financialindependence](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence) and [r/Bogleheads](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bogleheads)**: the community side. Year-end updates with the numbers attached, lived cases, and the questions nobody asks in public. [[voices-from-real-retirees]] ## The books **Vicki Robin and Joe Dominguez, *Your Money or Your Life* (1992)**: the philosophical bedrock of the movement (money as life energy). Dated on the technique, intact on the substance. [[what-is-fire]] **Wade Pfau, *Retirement Planning Guidebook***: the most complete practitioner's manual on withdrawal. Both schools (probability-based and safety-first) get equal treatment. The professional reference. [[withdrawal-strategies-overview]], [[annuities-and-safety-first]] **Antti Ilmanen, *Expected Returns* (2011) and *Investing Amid Low Expected Returns* (2022)**: the reference on what each asset class pays and why. The theory under the whole portfolio part. [[expected-returns]], [[defensive-assets]] **William Bernstein, *The Intelligent Asset Allocator* and *The Four Pillars of Investing***: the best written teaching on the two averages, on diversification and on market history. [[arithmetic-vs-geometric-returns]] **Harry Browne, *Fail-Safe Investing* (1999)**: the all-weather archetype by its inventor. Short, radical, and clarifying even if you never adopt the four quarters. [[all-weather-portfolios]] **Bill Perkins, *Die With Zero* (2020)**: the case for spending and giving while you are alive. Read it with the guardrails of the chapter devoted to it. [[spending-in-retirement]], [[the-psychology-of-spending]] **Ernie Zelinski, *How to Retire Happy, Wild, and Free* (2004)**: the **non** financial classic the veterans recommend most. The "toward what". [[meaning-and-identity]] **Kahneman, *Thinking, Fast and Slow*; Thaler, *Misbehaving***: the behavioral foundations. Every bias a retiree runs into is in there. [[the-psychology-of-spending]] **Adam Fergusson, *When Money Dies*; Barton Biggs, *Wealth, War and Wisdom***: the extremes as they were lived (Weimar; the Second World War, one family fortune at a time). The inflation part told as a story. [[hyperinflation-and-extremes]] **JL Collins, *The Simple Path to Wealth***: the most readable way in to accumulation. The one to give a beginner. It is thin on decumulation, which is where this book picks up. ## The key papers and studies **Bengen (1994), "Determining Withdrawal Rates Using Historical Data"; Cooley, Hubbard and Walz (1998, the Trinity study)**: the foundations. Short, readable, freely available. [[the-trinity-study]] **Anarkulova, Cederburg, O'Doherty and Sias (2023), "The Safe Withdrawal Rate: Evidence from a Broad Sample of Developed Markets"; Cederburg et al., "Beyond the Status Quo"**: the world sample and the 100% stocks debate. The modern prudent bounds (SSRN, free). [[anarkulova-cederburg]], [[stock-bond-allocation]] **Jorda, Knoll, Kuvshinov, Schularick and Taylor, "The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015"**: the academic panel of long multi-country returns. The raw material of the broad sample. [[historical-vs-parametric]] **Pfau and Kitces (2014), "Reducing Retirement Risk with a Rising Equity Glide Path"**: the rising glide path, primary source. [[glidepaths]] **Guyton and Klinger (2006), "Decision Rules and Maximum Initial Withdrawal Rates"**: the original guardrails. Read it knowing the criticism. [[guyton-klinger]] **Blanchett (2013), "Estimating the True Cost of Retirement"**: the retirement spending smile. [[spending-in-retirement]] **Campbell and Shiller (1988); Shiller, *Irrational Exuberance***: the CAPE, primary sources; the data lives on Shiller's site at Yale. [[valuations-and-cape]] **Moskowitz, Ooi and Pedersen (2012), "Time Series Momentum"; Hurst, Ooi and Pedersen (2017), "A Century of Evidence on Trend-Following Investing"**: trend, and the evidence for it. [[managed-futures]] **Neville, Draaisma, Funnell, Harvey and Van Hemert (2021), "The Best Strategies for Inflationary Times"**: what actually worked across eight inflation episodes. [[inflation-protection]] **Reinhart and Sbrancia (2011), "The Liquidation of Government Debt"**: financial repression, documented. [[hyperinflation-and-extremes]] **Redington (1952), "Review of the Principles of Life-Office Valuations"; Fisher and Weil (1971), "Coping with the Risk of Interest-Rate Fluctuations"; Leibowitz (1986), "The Dedicated Bond Portfolio in Pension Funds"**: immunization and cash-flow matching, from life-office actuaries to pension funds. Where the bond ladder comes from. [[bond-ladders]] **Dimson, Marsh and Staunton, *Global Investment Returns Yearbook* (annual, UBS)**: the world century in numbers, country by country, updated every year. The one annual report to read. [[international-diversification]] ## The annual reports and the living data This section is not a list of links, it is the calendar of your annual review ([[the-annual-review]]). Each line refreshes one specific input of the plan. Only the last one has no fixed date, and that date is yours. The months below are those of the 2025 and 2026 editions, worth rechecking now and then. | Publication | Published | What it refreshes | |---|---|---| | JP Morgan, *Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions* | October | The forward μ, ten to fifteen years out | | Vanguard, *Economic and Market Outlook* | December | The forward μ, second opinion | | Morningstar, *The State of Retirement Income* | December | The starting withdrawal rate and the ranking of the rules | | Dimson, Marsh and Staunton, *Yearbook* (UBS) | Early March | The secular premia, country by country | | BlackRock, *Capital Market Assumptions* | Every quarter | The forward μ, third opinion | | Research Affiliates, *Asset Allocation Interactive* | Every month | The μ by asset class and by currency | | Shiller and [multpl.com](https://www.multpl.com) | Continuous | The valuation anchor | | BLS, Consumer Price Index | Every month | The drift in your own spending | | Your Social Security statement ([ssa.gov](https://www.ssa.gov)) | On your review date | The benefit amount and the claiming date | Each source has the chapter that puts it to work: [[expected-returns|the forward μ]], [[morningstar-guardrails|the guardrails]], [[international-diversification|the premia country by country]], [[valuations-and-cape|the CAPE]], [[tracking-inflation|inflation]] and [[us-healthcare-and-social-security|Social Security]]. The SG Trend Index stays out of this table, because it refreshes no input of the plan. It remains the yardstick to hold any trend vehicle against ([[managed-futures]]). One rule of discipline goes with the calendar. Read these values once a year, on a fixed date, and never in reaction to the headlines. A μ recalibrated in the middle of a selloff is no longer a forecast, it is a market call in disguise ([[the-psychology-of-spending]]). ## The official sources **[irs.gov](https://www.irs.gov)**: the tax rules as they actually read, plus the Publications that explain them in plain language. It settles every question a blog only argues about. [[us-taxes-in-the-withdrawal-phase]], [[us-accounts-and-account-order]] **[ssa.gov](https://www.ssa.gov)**: your earnings record and your benefit estimate, from the agency that will pay them. The hour-long audit with the best payoff in this book. [[us-healthcare-and-social-security]] **[healthcare.gov](https://www.healthcare.gov)**: the health insurance marketplace, its plans and its subsidy rules, for the years between the exit and Medicare. [[us-healthcare-and-social-security]] **[bls.gov](https://www.bls.gov)**: the Consumer Price Index and its companions, including the price series broken down by spending category. [[tracking-inflation]] **[treasurydirect.gov](https://www.treasurydirect.gov)**: Treasuries, TIPS and I bonds at the source, with the auction schedule and the terms. [[inflation-linked-bonds]], [[bond-ladders]] **[fred.stlouisfed.org](https://fred.stlouisfed.org)**: the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis data service. Nearly every series this book charts is there, free, downloadable. [[tracking-inflation]], [[expected-returns]] **[sec.gov](https://www.sec.gov) and [investor.gov](https://www.investor.gov)**: fund prospectuses and annual reports through EDGAR, plus the SEC's investor education pages. [[building-it-with-us-etfs]], [[simulator-traps]] ## The tools **The simulator that comes with this book**: a multi-model laboratory (historical windows, bootstrap, parametric, sequence stress), the withdrawal rules made runnable, and a solver that answers in equivalent moves. The manual is [[using-the-fire-simulator]], the plumbing [[under-the-hood]]. **TPAW Planner ([tpawplanner.com](https://tpawplanner.com))**: full ABW/TPAW, free. The reference for the actuarial family. [[amortization-based-withdrawal]] **Portfolio Charts; cFIREsim; FICalc**: the free historical simulators. Good second opinions, with their sample biases kept in mind ([[simulator-traps]]). **The VPW worksheet (Bogleheads); [tipsladder.com](https://www.tipsladder.com)**: the VPW spreadsheet, pension bridge included, and a TIPS ladder builder that prices the rungs for you. [[vpw]], [[bond-ladders]] **Fund screeners, and the funds' own documents**: how you pick a building block and check what it really tracks, expense ratio and all. [[building-it-with-us-etfs]] ::: astuce Three reading paths **The complete beginner**: this book, parts I and II, then *The Simple Path to Wealth* for accumulation, then ERN Parts 1 and 26, then back to parts IV and X. **The quant in a hurry**: the whole ERN series (with [[the-ern-series]] as the map), then Anarkulova-Cederburg, then Ilmanen 2022, then parts III and V of this book as the tooled counterpoint. **The nearly-gone**: parts IX to XI of this book, then the Social Security audit, then this year's Morningstar report, then Zelinski and *Die With Zero* for the life. After that, [[building-your-plan]], with a simulator open beside you. ::: ## The essentials - Four shelves: the living series (ERN, Kitces, Bogleheads), the books that hold up (Pfau, Ilmanen, Bernstein, and the non-financial Zelinski and Perkins), the source papers (short and readable: Bengen and Trinity take one evening), and the annual reports (Morningstar, DMS, the capital market assumptions) that keep you current. - The official sources beat any blog on their own subject, every year: irs.gov, ssa.gov, healthcare.gov, bls.gov, treasurydirect.gov. They settle the rules that apply; the calendar above settles the dates. - Cross the tools: a multi-model simulator as the main laboratory, TPAW and the historical simulators as second opinions, never a single verdict ([[simulator-traps]]). - A path beats a pile: the three above cover the beginner, the quant and the nearly-gone. And this book is built to serve as the map in the middle. --- ## Going further - The glossary ([[glossary]]) for the terms, the machine ([[under-the-hood]]) for the tool, and the table of contents for everything else.